Newsflash! It's pretty easy to predict when new Apple products, like the next iPad (codename: iPad 2) will be announced and available for sale. A quick perusal of the Sci/Tech page of Google News shows that stories based on rumors surrounding the next iPad are amongst the most popular current stories.
There are two factors here: Apple's very predictable, or at least fairly consistent, schedule for announcements and press events over the course of any given year and the desire for tech news outlets (this one included) and blogs to drive gobs of traffic to their websites. Apple products and apps are among the most searched online terms in the tech world, thus it's easy to see why rumors about a new iPad would be covered endlessly, even though—I promise—there's nothing to cover yet. It's just easy to place bets when there's nothing at stake.
First off, what if I told you Apple wasn't working on a new iPad? Think about that for a second. That's probably how long it would take you to form the sentence "You're full of it" and say it out loud. Of course it's working on a new iPad! It's a successful product. Apple releases new versions of its popular products on a yearly basis, so it's not even worth dubbing this a "rumor"—I would call it "obvious."
So, now comes the question: what do my friends and colleagues in the media know about the upcoming iPad? When will it be announced? I'll bet you that probably even Apple has not decided the exact date or week yet, but a good guess would be the end of January. Why? Because that's when they announced the first iPad, about eleven months ago.
Another good guess is that the new iPad will be available sometime in early Spring. Why? Because that's what happened this year. Starting to notice a trend? Yeah, past performance does not predict future results, but with Apple, it often does, and the press knows it and likes to act as if this is some kind of inside scoop.
Do you think Steve Jobs—or anyone at Apple—is calling tech journalists up, saying in a hushed whisper "iPad 2, January 26th, you didn't hear it from me" and then hanging up? Likewise, do you think that partnered manufacturers—from the companies that make the internal parts to the companies that make accessories timed for release the day of the announcement—are leaking any info? They sign non-disclosure agreements with Apple in order to be exclusive or semi-exclusive accessory partners. It means mountains of money to them, and if they breach the contract, it could mean mountains of money owed to Apple, and the probable loss of future contracts. In other words, the people who do know what is next often only know tidbits (meaning, case manufacturers will know there's a camera, but nothing about, say, internal storage), and they definitely know not to share the tiny bits of information they know with people like me. After all, they like to make money.
So how are all of these stories surfacing of a new iPad with a camera built-in for FaceTime and a higher resolution screen, etc? Because it's obvious, right? I would be shocked if Apple didn't release a new iPad early next year, and if it didn't have a camera for FaceTime, and if it didn't have other typical improvements, like perhaps better screen resolution, or more storage, different screen sizes, or enhanced wireless capabilities.
Once in a blue moon, there is a true leak of information—who can forget the Gizmodo-fueled iPhone 4 story from last Spring? Certainly not the poor Apple employee who accidentally left it at a bar. But this a very rare thing in the realm of Apple products. In the days leading up to an Apple event, real facts do leak—the new Apple TV, for instance, was a poorly kept secret, and often online retailers screw up the timing of accessories for new devices. But with a new iPad, what secret is there to keep? You know it's coming!
Who knows, maybe Apple will wait until early Spring when the new iPad is ready to ship that day, like it does with iPods every September? (Newsflash: I predict there will be an entire new generation of iPods in September 2011. You heard it here first.) Perhaps the new iPad will be ready for purchase the day of the January announcement. Until the media invites go out, likely in late January, however, and unless it's coming from the virtual desk of Julian Assange, I wouldn't put much stock in the hype you read. Most stories have a lot more to do with web traffic and educated guessing based on a fairly consistent product cycle than with anyone having an inside scoop from one of the most tightly lipped companies on the planet.
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